The Immediate and Lingering Effects of Armed Conflict on Adult Mortality: A Time Series Cross Sectional Analysis

Citation:

Li, Quan, and Ming Wen. 2005. “The Immediate and Lingering Effects of Armed Conflict on Adult Mortality: A Time Series Cross Sectional Analysis.” Journal of Peace Research 42 (July): 471–92.

Authors: Quan Li, Ming Wen

Abstract:

This research investigates the effect of armed conflict on adult mortality across countries and over time. Theoretical mechanisms are specified for how military violence influences adult mortality, both immediately and over time after conflict. The effects of aggregate conflict, interstate and intrastate conflicts, and conflict severity are explored. The Heckman selection model is applied to account for the conflict-induced missing data problem. A pooled analysis across 84 countries for the period from 1961 to 1998 provides broad empirical support for the proposed theoretical expectations across both genders. This study confirms the importance of both the immediate and the lingering effect of military conflict on the mortality of the working-age population. The immediate effect of civil conflict is much stronger than that of the interstate conflict, while the reverse applies to the lingering effect. Both the immediate and the lingering effects of severe conflict are much stronger than those of minor conflict. While men tend to suffer higher mortality immediately from intrastate conflict and severe conflict, women in the long run experience as much mortality owing to the lingering effects of these conflicts. The mortality data show a strong data selection bias caused by military conflict. The research findings highlight the imperative for negotiating peace. Preventing a contest from escalating into a severe conflict can produce noticeable gains in saved human lives.

Topics: Armed Conflict, Health, Military Forces & Armed Groups, Militaries, Peace Processes, Violence

Year: 2005

© 2017 CONSORTIUM ON GENDER, SECURITY & HUMAN RIGHTSLEGAL STATEMENT All photographs used on this site, and any materials posted on it, are the property of their respective owners, and are used by permission. Photographs: The images used on the site may not be downloaded, used, or reproduced in any way without the permission of the owner of the image. Materials: Visitors to the site are welcome to peruse the materials posted for their own research or for educational purposes. These materials, whether the property of the Consortium or of another, may only be reproduced with the permission of the owner of the material. This website contains copyrighted materials. The Consortium believes that any use of copyrighted material on this site is both permissive and in accordance with the Fair Use doctrine of 17 U.S.C. § 107. If, however, you believe that your intellectual property rights have been violated, please contact the Consortium at info@genderandsecurity.org.